Time series regression on integrated continuous-time processes with heavy and light tails

The paper presents a cointegration model in continuous time, where the linear combinations of the integrated processes are modeled by a multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The integrated processes are defined as vector-valued Lévy processes with an additional noise term. Hence, if we observe the process at discrete time points, we obtain a multiple regression model. As an estimator for the regression parameter we use the least squares estimator. We show that it is a consistent estimator and derive its asymptotic behavior. The limit distribution is a ratio of functionals of Brownian motions and stable Lévy processes, whose characteristic triplets have an explicit analytic representation. In particular, we present the Wald and the t-ratio statistic and simulate asymptotic confidence intervals. For the proofs we derive some central limit theorems for multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. AMS 2010 Subject Classifications: primary: 91G70, 60F05 secondary: 62M10, 62H12